Polymarket's Weather Bot — Live and trading on Polymarket CLOB

Polymarket Weather Bot.
Weather swings, traded with discipline.

MeteonBot: the AI Polymarket bot built for weather books.

Meet MeteonBot, the Polymarket Weather Bot, a storm-grade polymarket bot that watches every tick in Polymarket's weather markets, blends five institutional forecast models (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, NWS, plus HKO for Hong Kong) as data arrives, and only trades once the AI approves. 67+ cities. Quarter-Kelly position sizing. Rapid CLOB order routing.

Start Trading Whitepaper Tutorial

Built on Polymarket CLOB · Reasoned by Claude & Gemini

Live · 30D updated · just now

+$578,418

Members' total realized PnL

Engine attributed

+$418,615

Avg / member

+$661

Win rate

71.4%

Fills · 30D

6,247

Daily PnL · last 8d ▲ 12.4%

Community +24% w/w

857

Active traders this month

New · 7D

+47

Countries

38

Top trader · 30D

+$48,290

Sessions · 30D

12,408

+852

Top Traders →

NYC Highest Temp Mar 15 · BUY_YES 52-53°F Chicago Temp Mar 16 · Edge +12.4% London °C Mar 17 · ECMWF 14.2° Miami Highest Temp · GFS 82.1°F Tokyo Temp · UKMO 18.5°C Paris Forecast · σ=1.3° HIGH agreement Phoenix AZ · NWS 91°F · Kelly 4.2% Berlin Temp · Consensus 12.8°C ±0.6° NYC Highest Temp Mar 15 · BUY_YES 52-53°F Chicago Temp Mar 16 · Edge +12.4% London °C Mar 17 · ECMWF 14.2° Miami Highest Temp · GFS 82.1°F Tokyo Temp · UKMO 18.5°C Paris Forecast · σ=1.3° HIGH agreement Phoenix AZ · NWS 91°F · Kelly 4.2% Berlin Temp · Consensus 12.8°C ±0.6°

Live · Members cashing in right now

The wins keep coming.

Each position the bot closes in the green across our active traders shows up in this feed. Actual members, actual fills, actual PnL — nothing simulated.

857 active traders 71.4% win rate · 30D 6,247 fills · 30D

Recent Big Wins last 90s

0x4ab6…c2a82s ago

Highest temperature in Seoul · YES

+$420
0x8f3a…1d928s ago

Highest temperature in Shanghai · NO

+$185
0xd71c…8b4e14s ago

Highest temperature in Paris · NO

+$1,240
0x2e9b…f05723s ago

Highest temperature in Hong Kong · YES

+$67
0x6c1d…a73831s ago

Highest temperature in London · YES

+$98
0xb084…cf1247s ago

Highest temperature in Singapore · NO

+$312
0x59ee…3a6b1m ago

Highest temperature in Hong Kong · YES

+$54

7 big wins · past 90s See the top traders →

The numbers

Some key metrics straight from the engine.

$2.4M

Monthly volume · +40% MoM

4,892

Trades executed · over 95% success

85%

Peak win rate · climbed from 70%

857

Active traders · still growing

67+

Cities tracked worldwide

5

Forecast models (GFS·ECMWF·UKMO·NWS·HKO)

5s

Fastest WebSocket latency

0.25x

Quarter-Kelly sizing on every position

Tick to trade

Scan → Reason → Strike
three loops that never stop

Link a Polygon wallet, set your risk preferences, press Start. From then on the engine keeps three loops running side by side — one hunting for markets, one reasoning over them, one hitting the order book — until you switch it off.

01

Market Discovery & Forecast Fetch

Every weather-tagged event is pulled from the Gamma API (paginated, up to 400). Each title is parsed for its city, date and unit, coordinates are resolved, and GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and NWS are requested in parallel — plus HKO (Hong Kong Observatory), the official resolution gauge, for Hong Kong — together with a 10-year NOAA NCEI climatology snapshot.

02

Edge Math, Then Claude & Gemini Approval

The probability core forms a confidence-weighted consensus, calculates a sigma that scales with the forecast horizon, and sweeps a Normal CDF across every outcome. Claude & Gemini then reads the briefing and returns a direction, outcome label, confidence tier, rationale and size.

03

Live Stream & Automatic Strike

An always-open CLOB socket reruns the edge math on each tick. When the absolute edge clears the dynamic floor (3-8%), the trader places a Fill-Or-Kill market order, and if signing fails it falls back to a GTC limit with 2% slippage. From there the five-way exit monitor takes charge.

Under the hood

A look inside the
Storm-Signal Engine

At its core is a Node.js service that holds a live socket open to Polymarket's CLOB, queries up to five meteorology APIs at once, runs a Bayesian probability engine across every outcome, and passes the result to Claude & Gemini before a single dollar is committed.

Five-Model Ensemble

Pulls live data from GFS (NOAA, 16-day), ECMWF (European Centre, 10-day), UKMO (UK Met Office, 7-day) and NWS (US hourly) — plus HKO (Hong Kong Observatory), the official gauge that settles HK markets, for Hong Kong. Every cycle computes a confidence-weighted blend (ECMWF 35%, GFS 25%, UKMO 20%, NWS 20%), and any model more than 1.5σ from the mean has its weight halved automatically; in Hong Kong, HKO leads at 50%, tapering with lead time.

The Probability Core

Sigma scales with the horizon (0.8° six hours out, widening to 5.5° past ten days), each outcome gets a Normal-CDF probability, and a 10-year NOAA NCEI prior is blended in through a Bayesian update. Positions are sized at quarter-Kelly, never above 15% of bankroll.

Rapid CLOB Stream

An always-on socket into Polymarket CLOB. Every price change reruns the edge math immediately — under 2 seconds from tick to order.

Claude & Gemini as the Last Check

Claude & Gemini reviews each candidate with the full briefing — model spread, climatology, order books, history — and answers BUY_YES, BUY_NO or SKIP with a confidence level and size.

Coverage Across 67 Cities

NYC and London through Tokyo, Paris, Berlin, Sydney and Dubai. The parser pulls the city and date out of every market title and fetches local forecasts in °F or °C.

Five-Trigger Exit Discipline

Every open position is watched by five independent triggers. The first one to fire closes the position directly through CLOB.

60% edge captured

<2% edge collapsed

40% trailing stop

15% drawdown

2h time decay

Hong Kong Settlement-Gauge Lock

Polymarket resolves Hong Kong markets on a single reading — the official daily maximum recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO). That is why HKO is the dominant model for Hong Kong, with its HQ gauge polled live every few minutes on resolution day. Because a daily max can only climb, the instant it passes a threshold that outcome is locked YES — the engine buys while it is still mispriced (35–83¢ band), then plays the mirror side once the afternoon peak is behind us.

Watch and learn

Watch MeteonBot at work
a short walkthrough

Just getting started? This brief tutorial shows you how to connect a wallet, set your risk preferences and hand the trading over to the engine — all you need to get going with MeteonBot.

FAQ

Your most frequent questions, covered.

Forecast models, edge math, position sizing, exits, on-chain details, fees, troubleshooting — each question we hear often, explained in plain English.

Read the FAQ

Trade the weather.
Live on Polymarket.

Link a Polygon wallet, top it up with pUSD, and let five institutional models together with Claude & Gemini hunt down mispriced weather books for you.

Open MeteonBot

No Polymarket account yet?

Sign up and claim your edge

Live Dashboard

MeteonBot Stats

Live telemetry available through /api/state. Every internal surface — discovered markets, model forecasts, signals, Claude & Gemini analyses, socket health, open positions and fill history — is served by the same Express API that powers the dashboard.

API Endpoints

14

REST routes: /api/state, /api/scan, /api/trade, /api/bot/start, /api/bot/stop, /api/wallet/connect, /api/ai/analyze, and more

Weather Models

5

GFS (NOAA), ECMWF (European), UKMO (UK Met), NWS (US), and HKO (Hong Kong Observatory, HK resolution source) — fetched in parallel via Promise.all()

Cities Supported

67

NYC, London, Tokyo, Paris, Berlin, Seoul, Dubai, Sydney, Mumbai, Istanbul, São Paulo, and 56 more

Top Traders Tracked

10

Leaderboard wallets pulled from data-api.polymarket.com — PnL, win rate, positions, activity

Edge Threshold

3-8%

Dynamic: max(0.03, min(0.08, σ × 0.02)) — narrower when the forecast is confident

Forecast Refresh

30 min

A background timer refetches every weather API and reloads StreamEngine with the new data

AI Analysis Cycle

5-15 min

Claude & Gemini re-reviews the top 15 markets with the full forecast and trade-history context

Historical Lookback

10 yrs

NOAA NCEI GHCND station data for the same calendar date — supplies the Bayesian prior

Engine Modules

MeteonBot Engines

Six compact engine files make up the platform, and each one owns a single stage of the pipeline. Plain ES modules on Node.js — no build step and no UI framework to depend on.

StreamEngine `stream.js`

Real-time WebSocket connection to wss://ws-subscriptions-clob.polymarket.com. Subscribes to all weather token IDs, handles price_change/last_trade_price/book events. On every tick: recalculates edge via inline Normal CDF, checks 5 exit conditions on open positions, fires trade signals.

CoreWebSocket

AIAnalyzer `ai.js`

Sends each market to Claude & Gemini with full context: question, YES/NO prices, all 4 forecasts, consensus temp, model agreement, hours-to-resolution, historical data, edge analysis, recent trade history. Returns structured JSON: decision, outcome label, confidence, reasoning, edge_pct, suggested_size_pct.

CoreClaude API

EdgeCalculator `edge.js`

Production probability engine. calculateSigma() maps forecast horizon to uncertainty (0.8° to 5.5°). calculateConsensus() does weighted blending with outlier detection. calculate() runs Normal CDF for each outcome type, applies Bayesian historical blending, outputs edge, signal, confidence, Kelly fraction, EV.

CoreMath

ForecastEngine `forecast.js`

Fetches from up to 6 real sources: GFS via Open-Meteo (16-day hourly), ECMWF via Open-Meteo (10-day), UKMO via Open-Meteo (7-day), NWS via api.weather.gov (US-only hourly + alerts), HKO via the Hong Kong Observatory Open Data API (Hong Kong only — the official resolution gauge, 9-day forecast + live running max), and NOAA NCEI CDO (10-year historical TMAX). All in parallel.

CoreWeather API

Trader `trader.js`

Connects to Polymarket CLOB via @polymarket/clob-client with ethers.js wallet. Derives API keys, auto-approves pUSD and CTF tokens on Exchange, NegRiskExchange, NegRiskAdapter contracts. Executes FOK market orders first; falls back to GTC limits with 2% slippage on signature errors.

CorePolygon

MarketDiscovery `markets.js`

Queries Polymarket Gamma API for weather-tagged events (up to 400 via pagination). Falls back to keyword search. Parses market titles to extract city (67-city map), date (4 regex patterns), temp unit, and market type. Parses outcomes into ranges, thresholds, exact values.

CoreGamma API

Documentation

MeteonBot Docs

The complete operator's manual: setup, environment, each API route, each config switch, and the full execution path from market discovery to on-chain settlement.

Quick Start

git clone <repo>
cd meteonbot
npm install          # express, ethers, @polymarket/clob-client, viem, ws, @anthropic-ai/sdk
npm start            # starts Express server on port 3779
# Open http://localhost:3779 in your browser

Environment Variables

ANTHROPIC_API_KEY=sk-ant-...    # Claude API key for AI analysis
NOAA_CDO_TOKEN=XRHLdkB...      # NOAA CDO token for historical data
PORT=3779                        # Server port (default 3779)

API Endpoints

Method	Route	Description
GET	/api/state	Full bot state: markets, signals, logs, streaming stats, AI analyses, positions
POST	/api/scan	Trigger market discovery + forecast fetch + edge calculation
POST	/api/wallet/connect	Connect Polygon wallet, auto-approves pUSD + CTF tokens
POST	/api/wallet/disconnect	Disconnect wallet and clear credentials from Store
POST	/api/trade	Execute trade: tokenId, side, amount, negRisk, tickSize, kellyFraction
POST	/api/bot/start	Start full pipeline: scan → stream → AI cycle → auto-trade
POST	/api/bot/stop	Stop streaming, clear timers, disconnect WebSocket
POST	/api/config	Update bankroll, maxPerTrade, minEdge, autoExecute, anthropicApiKey
POST	/api/ai/analyze	Analyze single market with Claude (pass marketId)
POST	/api/ai/analyze-top	Batch analyze top N markets (default 15)
GET	/api/traders	Top 10 weather trader leaderboard with PnL, positions, activity

Configuration Options

Setting	Default	Description
bankroll	$500	Total capital available for trading
maxPerTrade	$50	Maximum single trade size. Capped at bankroll
minEdge	5%	Minimum absolute edge required to generate a signal
autoExecute	true	Auto-execute trades when edge detected or AI recommends
aggressiveMode	false	Lower thresholds: 3% min edge, BUY_NO above 11¢, MEDIUM accepted
scanIntervalSec	300	Seconds between background market rescans

Multi-User Architecture

The Store module (store.js) keeps per-user state in a single JSON file at /data/users.json. Each record holds: hashed credentials and an auth token, a wallet block (encrypted PK plus proxy address), the user's risk config, counters, AI analyses, fill history and logs. BotManager spins up a dedicated StreamEngine, Trader and AI cycle per user while sharing the underlying market data layer.

Top Traders

Trader Leaderboard

The engine continuously monitors the ten most profitable weather wallets on Polymarket through /api/traders. Data is pulled live from the data-api leaderboard, the Gamma profile endpoint and the positions/activity feeds.

How the Tracking Works

For each wallet, the /api/traders endpoint hits four upstream data sources in parallel: Polymarket's leaderboard API (the authoritative source for PnL and volume), the Gamma profile endpoint (username and avatar), the positions API (all resolved and active positions with cashPnL), and the activity API (the trailing 30 trades). The merged result is sorted by total PnL, descending.

Wallets on the Watch List

The engine tracks the ten most profitable weather wallets on Polymarket, hard-coded in cities.js. The list is curated by cumulative PnL and weather-market win rate — not just raw volume.

Data Points Per Trader

Profile — username, profile picture (from leaderboard or Gamma)
PnL — total profit/loss from leaderboard API
Volume — total trading volume in USD
Win Rate — calculated from positions: (winning / total) × 100
Active Positions — current open positions with size > 0
PnL History — cumulative chart from sorted resolved positions
Recent Trades — last 5 trades with market title, side, size, price

AI-Augmented Copy Signals

With auto-execute on, Claude & Gemini assesses the very books these top wallets are trading. The model gets the complete forecast briefing, our edge math and the recent fill history — plus a flag showing whether the engine already holds the position, so it never enters twice. The outcome is a copy-signal layer shaped both by what the best traders are doing and by Claude & Gemini's own meteorological reasoning.

Anti-Churn Guardrails

The prompt sent to Claude & Gemini always includes recent fill history for the market being reviewed. The model is told explicitly to SKIP when the engine has just exited the same outcome in profit and the price hasn't moved, to be careful about re-entering after a loss unless the inputs have changed meaningfully, and to avoid flipping in and out of one outcome.

Technical Deep-Dive

MeteonBot Whitepaper

The complete mathematical spec: probability core, ensemble weighting, sigma behaviour, the Bayesian fold-in and quarter-Kelly sizing — written for traders who want to check every step themselves.

1. Consensus Temperature Algorithm

The EdgeCalculator.calculateConsensus() function computes a quality-weighted forecast temperature from up to 5 models. Base weights: ECMWF 0.35 (best global model), GFS 0.25, UKMO 0.20, NWS 0.20 — and for Hong Kong, HKO 0.50 (the resolution gauge), tapered by lead time. Outlier penalization: if a model's forecast deviates more than 1.5× the standard deviation from the raw mean, its weight is halved.

Model agreement is scored in 5 tiers based on inter-model standard deviation: VERY_HIGH (<0.5°), HIGH (<1.0°), MODERATE (<2.0°), LOW (<3.5°), VERY_LOW (≥3.5°).

2. Dynamic Sigma (σ) Calculation

Forecast uncertainty σ is the most critical parameter. Base σ from forecast horizon: 0.8° (≤6h), 1.0° (≤12h), 1.3° (≤24h), 1.8° (≤48h), 2.2° (≤72h), 3.0° (≤120h), 3.8° (≤168h), 4.5° (≤240h), 5.5° (beyond). Model count penalty: 1.0× (≥4), 1.1× (3), 1.25× (2), 1.5× (1). Spread penalty: 1.0 + (stdDev / 5.0). Final σ clamped to [0.5, 8.0].

3. Bayesian Historical Blending

When NOAA NCEI historical data is available, the forecast is Bayesian-combined with the 10-year historical distribution for the same calendar date. Combined precision = forecast_precision + historical_precision, where precision = 1/σ². If forecast and history disagree by more than 1.5 × historical_σ, the combined σ is widened by 30% to account for unusual conditions.

4. Probability Calculation

For each market outcome, the Normal CDF (Abramowitz-Stegun approximation) calculates the probability that the actual temperature falls within the outcome's range:

Exact value: P = CDF(52.5) − CDF(51.5) using ±0.5° bin
Range: P = CDF(53.5) − CDF(51.5)
"or higher": P = 1 − CDF(54)
"or lower": P = CDF(50)

Edge = forecastProb − marketPrice. Trades signaled when |edge| exceeds max(0.03, min(0.08, σ × 0.02)).

5. Kelly Criterion Sizing

For BUY_YES: kellyFraction = edge / ((1/marketPrice) − 1). For BUY_NO: |edge| / ((1/noPrice) − 1). Quarter-Kelly applied (×0.25) and clamped to [0, 0.15]. The bot never risks more than 15% of bankroll on a single trade; typical positions are 1-5%.

6. Trade Execution

The Trader class connects via @polymarket/clob-client with signature type 2 (POLY_GNOSIS_SAFE). Primary: FOK (Fill-Or-Kill) market order for immediate fills. Fallback: GTC limit at best ask/bid + 2% slippage, rounded to tick size. Dead orderbooks (404) cached and skipped. Concurrent execution on same tokenId prevented via Set lock.

7. Claude & Gemini Prompt Engineering

Each market is analyzed by Claude & Gemini with a structured prompt: market question, YES/NO prices, all model forecasts (5 for Hong Kong, where HKO is flagged as the resolution source), consensus temp, model agreement, hours until resolution, historical averages, edge analysis per outcome, and recent bot trade history. Two rule sets: BALANCED (5% min edge, prefer BUY_YES at 5-40¢) and AGGRESSIVE (3% min edge, BUY_NO above 11¢). Output enforced as JSON with exact outcome labels.

Security & Architecture

MeteonBot Security

How your keys are handled, which contracts the engine interacts with, and the layers of risk control applied to every order it sends.

Wallet & Key Handling

Wallet handling happens entirely on the client side. Your private key is used locally to derive your address and to sign the Polymarket API credential set (key, secret, passphrase) via the ClobClient. Signature type 2 (POLY_GNOSIS_SAFE) is used, with the proxy address acting as funder. The key never travels over the network and is never stored on any server we run.

Auto-Approved Contracts

Contract	Address	Approval
pUSD	0xC011a7E12a19f7B1f670d46F03B03f3342E82DFB	ERC20 approve(MAX) — V2 collateral
CTF	0x4D97DCd97eC945f40cF65F87097ACe5EA0476045	ERC1155 setApprovalForAll
Exchange	0x4bFb41d5B3570DeFd03C39a9A4D8dE6Bd8B8982E	pUSD + CTF
NegRiskExchange	0xC5d563A36AE78145C45a50134d48A1215220f80a	pUSD + CTF
NegRiskAdapter	0xd91E80cF2E7be2e162c6513ceD06f1dD0dA35296	CTF only

Balance Monitoring

On wallet connect, the bot checks POL balance (for gas) and pUSD balance (on proxy address) via Polygon RPC. Warnings if POL < 0.01 or pUSD < $1. Before every trade, the bot verifies the trade amount doesn't exceed available pUSD and tracks balance locally after each fill.

Risk Management Stack

Quarter-Kelly sizing — never risks more than 25% of the optimal bet size
15% max fraction — hard cap on any single position relative to bankroll
maxPerTrade cap — configurable dollar limit per trade (default $50)
Dead orderbook detection — skips tokens that return 404
Concurrent execution lock — prevents double-ordering on same tokenId
Price range filter — skips markets where YES is below 2¢ or above 98¢
Time filter — skips markets resolving within 2 hours
AI anti-churn — Claude & Gemini receives recent trade history
5-layer exit system — profit, convergence, trailing, drawdown, time

Disclaimer

MeteonBot is experimental software. Trading on Polymarket involves real financial risk — you may lose part or all of what you put in. Forecasts are probabilities, not guarantees. AI analyses are outputs, not advice. Wallet operations run on the client, so keys never touch a server. Complying with the rules that apply where you live is your responsibility alone, and past results never guarantee future ones.

Legal

Privacy Policy

How MeteonBot handles your wallet data, your trading activity and any information that passes through the platform.

1. What Data the Platform Touches

MeteonBot runs client-side. We do not store private keys, wallet credentials or personal data on any server. The data below is held locally in your browser or on infrastructure you control:

Wallet data — Polygon wallet address and proxy address used to sign and route on-chain orders. Private keys never leave the device.
Trading data — fill history, AI analyses, open positions, edge detections and risk config live locally.
Telemetry — scan/trade/tick/edge counts kept locally for the session.

2. How That Data Is Used

Wallet credentials sign and route Polymarket orders on Polygon.
Risk config drives position sizing, edge thresholds and the automation envelope.
Recent fill history is fed to Claude & Gemini as context to prevent churn.
Logs and counters render into the dashboard for live monitoring.

3. Data Storage

All data is handled client-side. MeteonBot does not store user data on any remote server or cloud database. There is no third-party analytics and no external data transmission beyond the APIs required for bot operation.

4. Third-Party Services

Polymarket — CLOB, Gamma, WebSocket, Data APIs for market discovery, trading, streaming.
Open-Meteo — Weather forecast API for GFS, ECMWF, UKMO. No auth required.
NOAA / NWS — US weather (api.weather.gov) and historical climate (ncei.noaa.gov).
Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) — Open Data API (data.weather.gov.hk) for Hong Kong forecasts and the live resolution-gauge reading. No auth required.
Anthropic — Claude API for market analysis. Your API key is used; market data sent.
Polygon RPC — Public Polygon node for balance checks and approvals.

5. Data Retention

Logs capped at 200 entries per user (oldest discarded). Trade history capped at 100. AI analyses at 20. Live edge detections at 50. Persists until the server data directory is manually cleared.

6. Security

MeteonBot operates client-side — your private keys are never transmitted to or stored on any server. All signing and trade execution happens locally on your device.

7. Your Rights

You can disconnect your wallet at any time via the dashboard. Disconnecting clears all associated session data.

8. Changes to This Policy

This privacy policy may be updated as MeteonBot evolves. Changes will be reflected on this page.

Last updated: March 2026

Legal

Terms of Service

The terms that govern your use of MeteonBot.

1. Acceptance of Terms

By accessing or using MeteonBot ("the Service"), you agree to be bound by these Terms of Service. If you do not agree, do not use the Service. MeteonBot is a polymarket weather trading bot that executes trades on Polymarket prediction markets using automated strategies.

2. What the Service Does

Locates weather prediction markets on Polymarket via the Gamma API
Pulls live forecasts from the GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and NWS models — plus the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) for Hong Kong, the official resolution gauge
Computes probabilistic edge through Bayesian statistics and Normal-CDF integration
Routes each candidate through Claude & Gemini for a trade/no-trade verdict
Settles fills on Polymarket's CLOB via the Polygon blockchain
Watches every open position against five independent exit triggers

3. Risk Disclosure

Polymarket trading carries real financial risk. You can lose some or all of the capital you put in.

Market risk — weather books are volatile and prices can move quickly.
Model risk — every forecast is a probability estimate, not a promise.
AI risk — Claude & Gemini reasons over the data given; not infallible.
Execution risk — orders can fail from thin liquidity, network congestion.
Smart-contract risk — interacting with Polymarket contracts inherits chain risk.
Software risk — experimental code; defects can translate to financial loss.

4. Not Financial Advice

Nothing surfaced by MeteonBot — signals, AI write-ups, edge numbers, fills — constitutes financial, investment or trading advice. They are algorithmic outputs. Every trading decision and its consequences are yours alone.

5. Eligibility

You are of legal age in your jurisdiction
You are not located in a jurisdiction where prediction market trading is prohibited
You have read and agree to Polymarket's Terms of Service
You understand the risks of cryptocurrency trading and blockchain interactions
The funds you use are not derived from illegal activity

6. User Responsibilities

Securing your device and browser environment
Protecting your private key and wallet credentials
Monitoring your bot's activity and positions
Ensuring adequate POL for gas and pUSD for trading
Configuring appropriate bankroll, maxPerTrade, minEdge for your risk tolerance
Complying with all applicable laws and regulations

7. Limitation of Liability

MeteonBot is provided "as is" and "as available" without warranties. To the maximum extent permitted by law, the developers shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, or punitive damages arising from your use of the Service.

8. Intellectual Property

MeteonBot's source code, algorithms, documentation, and website design are the intellectual property of the MeteonBot team. The polymarket weather trading bot name and branding are proprietary.

9. Termination

You may stop using MeteonBot at any time by disconnecting your wallet. We reserve the right to modify, suspend, or discontinue the Service at any time.

10-12. Modifications · Governing Law · Contact

Terms may be updated at any time. Continued use after modifications constitutes acceptance. Governed by applicable law; disputes resolved through binding arbitration. Contact via the project's GitHub repository or community channels.

Last updated: March 2026

Polymarket Weather Bot. Weather swings, traded with discipline.

MeteonBot: the AI Polymarket bot built for weather books.

The wins keep coming.

Some key metrics straight from the engine.

Scan → Reason → Strikethree loops that never stop

Market Discovery & Forecast Fetch

Edge Math, Then Claude & Gemini Approval

Live Stream & Automatic Strike

A look inside theStorm-Signal Engine

Five-Model Ensemble

The Probability Core

Rapid CLOB Stream

Claude & Gemini as the Last Check

Coverage Across 67 Cities

Five-Trigger Exit Discipline

Hong Kong Settlement-Gauge Lock

Watch MeteonBot at worka short walkthrough

Your most frequent questions, covered.

Trade the weather.Live on Polymarket.

MeteonBot Stats

API Endpoints

Weather Models

Cities Supported

Top Traders Tracked

Edge Threshold

Forecast Refresh

AI Analysis Cycle

Historical Lookback

MeteonBot Engines

StreamEngine stream.js

AIAnalyzer ai.js

EdgeCalculator edge.js

ForecastEngine forecast.js

Trader trader.js

MarketDiscovery markets.js

MeteonBot Docs

Quick Start

Environment Variables

API Endpoints

Configuration Options

Multi-User Architecture

Trader Leaderboard

How the Tracking Works

Wallets on the Watch List

Data Points Per Trader

AI-Augmented Copy Signals

Anti-Churn Guardrails

MeteonBot Whitepaper

1. Consensus Temperature Algorithm

2. Dynamic Sigma (σ) Calculation

3. Bayesian Historical Blending

4. Probability Calculation

5. Kelly Criterion Sizing

6. Trade Execution

7. Claude & Gemini Prompt Engineering

MeteonBot Security

Wallet & Key Handling

Auto-Approved Contracts

Balance Monitoring

Risk Management Stack

Disclaimer

Privacy Policy

1. What Data the Platform Touches

2. How That Data Is Used

3. Data Storage

4. Third-Party Services

5. Data Retention

6. Security

7. Your Rights

8. Changes to This Policy

Terms of Service

1. Acceptance of Terms

2. What the Service Does

3. Risk Disclosure

4. Not Financial Advice

5. Eligibility

6. User Responsibilities

7. Limitation of Liability

8. Intellectual Property

9. Termination

Polymarket Weather Bot.
Weather swings, traded with discipline.

Scan → Reason → Strike
three loops that never stop

A look inside the
Storm-Signal Engine

Watch MeteonBot at work
a short walkthrough

Trade the weather.
Live on Polymarket.

StreamEngine `stream.js`

AIAnalyzer `ai.js`

EdgeCalculator `edge.js`

ForecastEngine `forecast.js`

Trader `trader.js`

MarketDiscovery `markets.js`